Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Sweden
  • Netherlands
  • Ireland
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Slovenia
  • Switzerland
  • Austria
  • Croatia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,235$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,988.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54,988.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,186$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,913.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,913.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,061$ on 2020-05-21

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $233,037$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224,296.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(224,296.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,940$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,882.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(26,882.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,721$ on 2020-05-21

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $228,006$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,361.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(222,361.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,486$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,437.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,437.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,960$ on 2020-05-21

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $252,246$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.7)}}\) (asimptote \(262,156.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,124$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,242.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,242.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $214,988$ on 2020-05-21

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $181,951$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,170.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,170.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,218$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,103.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(27,103.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,757$ on 2020-05-21

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,172$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,780.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 56.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,780.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,871$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,927.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,927.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,330$ on 2020-05-21

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,900$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,132.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(44,132.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,794$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(812 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,706.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,706.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,937$ on 2020-05-21

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,391$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,162.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(24,162.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,583$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(130 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,577.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,577.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,748$ on 2020-05-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 98%
Switzerland recovered 94%
Austria recovered 91%
Croatia recovered 87%
Andorra recovered 86%
Germany recovered 83%
Slovakia recovered 78%
Denmark recovered 75%
Lithuania recovered 54%
Czechia recovered 53%
Italy recovered 44%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 39%
Serbia recovered 32%
Romania recovered 24%
San Marino recovered 20%
France recovered 9%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,468$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(454 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,452.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,452.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(18.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-21

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,694$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,914.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(29,914.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,898$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(297 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,867.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,867.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $896$ on 2020-05-21

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,404$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,555.8}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,555.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $633$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{627.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(627.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $820$ on 2020-05-21

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,237$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,171.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,171.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $97$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $162$ on 2020-05-21